A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding

This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER’s own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.decoding, hierarchical factor segmentation, network analysis, business cycles

A chronology of international business cycles through non-parametric decoding

This paper introduces a new empirical strategy for the characterization of business cycles. It combines non-parametric decoding methods that classify a series into expansions and recessions but does not require specification of the underlying stochastic process generating the data. It then uses network analysis to combine the signals obtained from different economic indicators to generate a unique chronology. These methods generate a record of peak and trough dates comparable, and in one sense superior, to the NBER's own chronology. The methods are then applied to 22 OECD countries to obtain a global business cycle chronology.

On fixed effects estimation in spline-based semiparametric regression for spatial data

Spline surfaces are often used to capture spatial variability sources in linear mixed-effects models, without imposing a parametric covariance structure on the random effects. However, including a spline component in a semiparametric model may change the estimated regression coefficients, a problem analogous to spatial confounding in spatially correlated random effects. Our research aims to investigate such effects in spline-based semiparametric regression for spatial data. We discuss estimators\u27 behavior under the traditional spatial linear regression, how the estimates change in spatial confounding-like situations, and how selecting a proper tuning parameter for the spline can help reduce bias

Optically-Nonactive Assorted Helices Array with Interchangeable Magnetic/Electric Resonance

We report here the designing of optically-nonactive metamaterial by assembling metallic helices with different chirality. With linearly polarized incident light, pure electric or magnetic resonance can be selectively realized, which leads to negative permittivity or negative permeability accordingly. Further, we show that pure electric or magnetic resonance can be interchanged at the same frequency band by merely changing the polarization of incident light for 90 degrees. This design demonstrates a unique approach to construct metamaterial.Comment: 15 pages, 4 figure